Why 2025 Is on Track to Be One of the Warmest Years Ever

2025 is ending as one of the hottest years ever recorded, and the data from November makes that hard to ignore. Temperature measurements from satellites, ocean sensors, and ground stations all show the same steady rise, and the World Meteorological Organization now expects 2025 to finish as either the second or third warmest year on record. Even without looking at the full dataset, the pattern is obvious: month after month has come in well above the long-term average, and November continued that trend.

What stood out most this month was how far global temperatures were above the 1991–2020 baseline. Ocean temperatures, in particular, remained extremely high, and that matters more than most people realize. Since oceans absorb most of the excess heat trapped in the atmosphere, consistently warm sea-surface temperatures are a clear signal of long-term change rather than short-term variation. They also feed into stronger storms, heavier rainfall, and generally more unpredictable weather, which is exactly what many regions saw as November went on.

The flooding in Southeast Asia is a good example. Rainfall totals there reached levels that climate models only expected later in the decade. Events that used to be described as “once in a century” are already happening much more frequently. Statistically, that means the shape of the extreme-weather curve is changing—the most destructive events are no longer rare outliers but are slowly becoming part of the new normal. For anyone studying climate patterns or risk forecasting, it’s a noticeable shift in how we have to interpret long-term data.

Other parts of the climate system are showing similar signals. Ocean heat content continues to rise, and new research from Antarctica points to faster ice loss than previously expected. When different parts of the climate system all move in the same direction, confidence in the overall trend increases. This isn’t just noise or year-to-year fluctuation; it’s a sign of deeper, structural change.

All of this makes November’s data important not just for describing what happened this month, but for understanding where things are heading. Forecasting models will have to adapt to more frequent extremes, and long-term planning—everything from infrastructure to disaster preparedness—will need to account for more uncertainty and higher risk. As 2025 wraps up, the numbers tell a consistent story: the planet is warming faster than expected, and the effects are already showing up in the data.